Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 46.3%). Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Oshie 46.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Oshie 79.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 86.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Stepan
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Stepan
Oshie
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
4
Stepan
Oshie
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
1
Stepan
Oshie
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Oshie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
45.2% (764)
+1.3%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
47.7% (1,221)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
40.2% (164)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Oshie is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Home / Away
Stepan
Oshie
Home
47.6% (6,608)
48.7% (1,103)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
43.7% (1,047)
By Period
Stepan
Oshie
P1
47.5%
47.3%
P2
45.6%
45.2%
P3
46.8%
46.7%
OT
40.7%
40.8%
Final 5 min
47.5%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 07:43 | Defensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 17, 2016 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 9, 2016 | 3 | 18:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |