Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Blueger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Blueger 51.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 81.0%
Defensive zone
Blueger 74.6%
Neutral zone
Blueger 52.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Stepan
Blueger
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stepan
Blueger
Last 7: Stepan 4-3 Blueger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
1
Stepan
Blueger
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blueger
0
1
Stepan
Blueger
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blueger
0
1
Stepan
Blueger
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Blueger
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
54.1% (425)
+1.2%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
100.0% (6)
-100.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
43.8% (144)
+7.0%
On power play, Blueger has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blueger shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Blueger is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Stepan
Blueger
Home
57.7% (213)
52.5% (282)
Away
50.7% (209)
51.5% (293)
By Period
Stepan
Blueger
P1
56.3%
49.2%
P2
48.9%
57.2%
P3
57.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Blueger
58.0%▲
48.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:09 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Teddy Blueger |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:56 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 11:25 | Defensive | Teddy Blueger |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:24 | Offensive | Teddy Blueger |