Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Boyd on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Boyd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Boyd 45.7% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boyd 61.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 63.6%
Neutral zone
Boyd 57.2%
Result
Travis Boyd favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Stepan
Boyd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Stepan
Boyd
Last 9: Stepan 4-5 Boyd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Boyd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Boyd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boyd
2
3
Stepan
Boyd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Boyd
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
45.4% (108)
+1.9%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
0.0% (5)
+54.4%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
20.0% (5)
+25.2%
On power play, Stepan has a +54.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boyd shoots right. Stepan is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Stepan shoots right. Boyd is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
Stepan
Boyd
Home
50.4% (560)
58.3% (24)
Away
45.1% (637)
37.9% (95)
By Period
Stepan
Boyd
P1
47.4%
38.5%
P2
47.0%
46.4%
P3
48.1%
43.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
29.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Boyd
50.0%▲
48.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 08:25 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 05:25 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 01:38 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 01:24 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |