Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.0% vs Bozak 55.8% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 69.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 72.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 71.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Stepan
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stepan
Bozak
Last 8: Stepan 2-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
3
Stepan
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
3
Stepan
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (889)
56.4% (837)
-9.8%
Power Play
46.9% (113)
60.8% (186)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
33.3% (36)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Stepan is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Stepan shoots right. Bozak is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bozak
Home
47.7% (555)
58.7% (516)
Away
45.6% (548)
54.1% (543)
By Period
Stepan
Bozak
P1
46.4%
55.7%
P2
45.7%
53.4%
P3
48.5%
59.7%
OT
35.3%
63.2%
Final 5 min
46.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2015 | 3 | 05:11 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 2 | 13:31 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 2 | 08:16 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 15, 2015 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |