Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 44 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Bozak 53.4% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 69-41 in 110 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 84.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 81.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 85.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Stepan
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
69
(110 meetings)
41
69
Stepan
Bozak
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
12
23
Stepan
Bozak
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
15
29
Stepan
Bozak
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
14
17
Stepan
Bozak
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.7% (9,596)
-7.2%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
55.2% (1,990)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
48.0% (1,094)
-3.8%
On even strength, Bozak has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Bozak is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,312).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bozak
Home
47.6% (6,608)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Stepan
Bozak
P1
47.5%
53.2%
P2
45.6%
52.8%
P3
46.8%
54.5%
OT
40.7%
52.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 19:22 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 04:19 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 00:27 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 20, 2017 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 20, 2017 | 1 | 11:33 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 20, 2017 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |