Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.5% vs Bozak 53.9% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 64.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 63.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Stepan
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Stepan
Bozak
Last 7: Stepan 2-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
3
Stepan
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Stepan
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (991)
55.4% (719)
-8.6%
Power Play
48.8% (211)
45.1% (51)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (174)
50.0% (60)
-1.7%
On even strength, Bozak has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Stepan is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (418).
Stepan shoots right. Bozak is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (263).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bozak
Home
48.6% (666)
55.5% (443)
Away
46.1% (710)
53.0% (387)
By Period
Stepan
Bozak
P1
46.3%
53.3%
P2
50.7%
54.7%
P3
45.5%
55.4%
OT
39.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 04:19 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 00:27 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |