Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stepan wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.5% vs Johnson 48.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 67.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 57.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 55.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Stepan
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Stepan
Johnson
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Johnson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
5
Stepan
Johnson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
4
Stepan
Johnson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (1,141)
48.7% (941)
-4.9%
Power Play
52.2% (253)
49.6% (133)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
44.8% (201)
-1.6%
On even strength, Johnson has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stepan is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (484).
Stepan shoots right. Johnson is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (413).
Home / Away
Stepan
Johnson
Home
47.8% (828)
50.5% (588)
Away
42.0% (684)
46.1% (687)
By Period
Stepan
Johnson
P1
49.5%
49.4%
P2
42.0%
47.3%
P3
44.3%
48.1%
OT
41.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
47.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 16:39 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 1 | 18:07 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 06:58 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 2 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 25, 2013 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |