Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Johnson 48.8% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 70.4%
Defensive zone
Johnson 57.8%
Neutral zone
Johnson 72.1%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Stepan
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Stepan
Johnson
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
1
Stepan
Johnson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
2
Stepan
Johnson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
49.5% (828)
-6.0%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
54.9% (142)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
36.8% (133)
+6.2%
On power play, Johnson has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stepan is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Stepan shoots right. Johnson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Stepan
Johnson
Home
45.6% (629)
50.7% (564)
Away
42.5% (603)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Stepan
Johnson
P1
44.7%
51.2%
P2
43.7%
47.5%
P3
43.9%
48.4%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2014 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 1 | 12:23 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 1 | 14:20 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 1 | 11:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |