Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Seguin 57.4% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 69.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 67.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Stepan
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stepan
Seguin
Last 5: Stepan 1-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
3
Stepan
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
59.6% (736)
-12.3%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
61.5% (65)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
47.6% (124)
-2.4%
On even strength, Seguin has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Stepan is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Stepan shoots right. Seguin is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Stepan
Seguin
Home
50.4% (560)
60.1% (461)
Away
45.1% (637)
56.3% (464)
By Period
Stepan
Seguin
P1
47.4%
59.1%
P2
47.0%
58.9%
P3
48.1%
57.3%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |