Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 37 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Seguin 53.6% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 53-36 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 68.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 84.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 84.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Stepan
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
53
(89 meetings)
36
53
Stepan
Seguin
Last 10: Stepan 3-7 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
16
14
Stepan
Seguin
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
10
12
Stepan
Seguin
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
10
27
Stepan
Seguin
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.7% (8,071)
-7.2%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
55.9% (810)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
49.3% (762)
-5.1%
On even strength, Seguin has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Stepan
Seguin
Home
47.6% (6,608)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Stepan
Seguin
P1
47.5%
52.8%
P2
45.6%
53.3%
P3
46.8%
54.7%
OT
40.7%
54.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 08:08 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 05:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 13:39 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 4, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |