Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Karlsson 45.8% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 74.5%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 67.2%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 59.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Stepan
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Stepan
Karlsson
Last 10: Stepan 8-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
9
1
Stepan
Karlsson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
4
Stepan
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
1
Stepan
Karlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
47.2% (786)
+1.0%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
54.5% (11)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
35.6% (163)
+2.3%
On power play, Karlsson has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Stepan shoots right. Karlsson is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Stepan
Karlsson
Home
46.4% (774)
46.4% (478)
Away
47.7% (748)
44.2% (482)
By Period
Stepan
Karlsson
P1
46.7%
44.8%
P2
46.3%
45.6%
P3
48.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
46.7%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2017 | 1 | 08:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 18:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 2 | 10:14 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 14:01 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 04:51 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 1 | 11:33 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |