Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+4.2%)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 56.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 58.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Stepan
Karlsson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.4% (735)
+3.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
63.5% (115)
-63.5%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
42.9% (133)
+21.8%
On power play, Karlsson has a +63.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Karlsson is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Home / Away
Stepan
Karlsson
Home
54.5% (222)
52.3% (524)
Away
57.2% (222)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Stepan
Karlsson
P1
57.5%
50.7%
P2
54.7%
51.4%
P3
55.9%
53.2%
Final 5 min
57.5%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%