Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs Gourde 44.8% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 56.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 57.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Stepan
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stepan
Gourde
Last 7: Stepan 4-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Stepan
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
40.9% (279)
+6.1%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
58.3% (60)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (108)
36.0% (25)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stepan is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,079).
Stepan shoots right. Gourde is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gourde
Home
48.2% (761)
45.5% (189)
Away
47.3% (789)
41.1% (175)
By Period
Stepan
Gourde
P1
46.3%
42.4%
P2
50.4%
48.3%
P3
46.3%
40.3%
OT
55.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
43.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 12:12 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 08:15 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 1 | 07:24 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |