Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Gourde 49.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 50.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 50.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 50.3%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Stepan
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Stepan
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Stepan
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
49.1% (847)
+6.2%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
79.5% (44)
-79.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
39.5% (81)
+11.3%
On power play, Gourde has a +79.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Gourde is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gourde
Home
57.7% (213)
50.1% (491)
Away
50.7% (209)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Stepan
Gourde
P1
56.3%
54.7%
P2
48.9%
45.0%
P3
57.1%
49.4%
Final 5 min
57.6%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |