Scouting Report
Derick Brassard holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Brassard wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 50.0% vs Barzal 39.3% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 84.5%
Defensive zone
Brassard 53.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 64.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Brassard
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Brassard
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Brassard
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Brassard
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (230)
35.0% (283)
+14.6%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
55.6% (9)
-1.8%
On even strength, Brassard has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Brassard is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Brassard shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Brassard
Barzal
Home
51.7% (143)
37.0% (138)
Away
48.3% (143)
34.4% (154)
By Period
Brassard
Barzal
P1
46.4%
29.5%
P2
50.6%
44.5%
P3
53.9%
31.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
50.0%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:14 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |