Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Brassard on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 48.8% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Brassard leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 89.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 81.0%
19.0%
81.0%
Brassard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Brassard
O'Reilly
Last 10: Brassard 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
3
2
Brassard
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
2
0
Brassard
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brassard
4
1
Brassard
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,162)
52.7% (900)
-4.2%
Power Play
49.7% (181)
55.6% (225)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (33)
54.5% (209)
-3.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Brassard is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (813).
Brassard shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Brassard
O'Reilly
Home
51.7% (689)
55.1% (693)
Away
45.9% (687)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Brassard
O'Reilly
P1
48.1%
51.5%
P2
51.8%
54.7%
P3
45.9%
52.7%
OT
52.2%
69.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 10:44 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 04:36 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 00:08 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |