Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Brassard wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 54.0% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brassard 57.2%
Defensive zone
Brassard 53.9%
Neutral zone
Brassard 53.8%
Result
Derick Brassard favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Brassard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Brassard
O'Reilly
Last 5: Brassard 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
0
Brassard
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Brassard
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Brassard
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (334)
57.3% (1,073)
-1.9%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
58.5% (258)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
50.7% (225)
+24.3%
On penalty kill, Brassard has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Brassard is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Brassard shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Brassard
O'Reilly
Home
52.3% (174)
59.2% (765)
Away
57.9% (183)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Brassard
O'Reilly
P1
47.1%
55.6%
P2
60.6%
61.0%
P3
57.4%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
61.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
55.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 14:34 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |