Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Brassard wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 50.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 71.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Brassard
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Brassard
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
2
0
Brassard
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (230)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.5%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
59.8% (296)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (30)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Brassard has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Brassard is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Brassard shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Brassard
Hertl
Home
51.7% (143)
54.3% (709)
Away
48.3% (143)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Brassard
Hertl
P1
46.4%
51.6%
P2
50.6%
53.6%
P3
53.9%
58.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
50.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |