Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Voronkov on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Voronkov wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Voronkov 42.5% vs Cates 43.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Voronkov 58.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 84.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 62.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Voronkov
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Voronkov
Cates
Last 8: Voronkov 7-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Voronkov
4
1
Voronkov
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Voronkov
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Voronkov
2
0
Voronkov
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Voronkov
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (644)
44.1% (2,742)
-3.0%
Power Play
42.5% (120)
43.0% (242)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
34.9% (373)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Voronkov has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Voronkov is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (538).
Voronkov shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Voronkov
Cates
Home
40.8% (387)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
42.2% (384)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Voronkov
Cates
P1
41.7%
44.5%
P2
41.7%
43.5%
P3
41.1%
41.2%
Final 5 min
39.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Voronkov
28.0%▼
40.0%
41.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dmitri Voronkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Dmitri Voronkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Dmitri Voronkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Dmitri Voronkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Dmitri Voronkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Dmitri Voronkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 18:18 | Offensive | Dmitri Voronkov |