Dominic Toninato vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toninato wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toninato 45.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toninato 80.0%
Defensive zone
Toninato 80.0%
Neutral zone
Toninato 81.0%
Result
Dominic Toninato favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Toninato
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toninato
O'Reilly
Last 5: Toninato 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Toninato
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
1
0
Toninato
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Toninato
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toninato
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (769)
56.2% (15,103)
-10.7%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
58.7% (3,395)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (45)
51.6% (2,769)
-24.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toninato is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Toninato shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Toninato
O'Reilly
Home
46.3% (404)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
42.9% (431)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Toninato
O'Reilly
P1
40.7%
55.5%
P2
45.4%
57.0%
P3
47.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
41.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toninato
42.0%▼
46.5%
44.6%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |