Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Cozens wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 56.9%
Neutral zone
Cozens 51.1%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Cozens
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cozens
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Cozens
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (859)
52.3% (560)
-2.9%
Power Play
49.5% (186)
57.5% (113)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (129)
62.5% (16)
-23.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cozens is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Cozens shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Cozens
Pavelski
Home
49.0% (600)
54.2% (360)
Away
47.6% (574)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Cozens
Pavelski
P1
46.5%
54.5%
P2
52.9%
56.7%
P3
45.2%
50.8%
OT
53.8%
30.8%
Final 5 min
45.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |