Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Cozens wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 61.2%
Defensive zone
Cozens 60.9%
Neutral zone
Cozens 60.6%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Cozens
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Cozens
Pavelski
Last 10: Cozens 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
6
Cozens
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
5
1
Cozens
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Cozens
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (4,075)
53.6% (8,791)
-4.7%
Power Play
50.4% (714)
58.2% (2,122)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
50.9% (1,138)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cozens is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,449).
Cozens shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Cozens
Pavelski
Home
48.2% (2,677)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
48.6% (2,551)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Cozens
Pavelski
P1
49.1%
53.5%
P2
47.7%
55.2%
P3
48.8%
53.9%
OT
34.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:47 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:53 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 06:37 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |