Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 47.7%). Cozens wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Kapanen 48.0% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 52.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 56.6%
Neutral zone
Cozens 51.4%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Cozens
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cozens
Kapanen
Last 5: Cozens 2-3 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
2
Cozens
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (3,987)
48.1% (495)
+0.7%
Power Play
50.4% (699)
50.0% (48)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
37.5% (32)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Cozens is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,439).
Cozens shoots right. Kapanen is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Cozens
Kapanen
Home
48.1% (2,633)
47.2% (299)
Away
48.6% (2,492)
48.2% (276)
By Period
Cozens
Kapanen
P1
49.0%
42.0%
P2
47.7%
51.4%
P3
48.8%
49.2%
OT
32.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
46.0%▼
50.0%
48.4%
Kapanen
58.0%▲
47.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:01 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |