Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Gambrell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Gambrell 46.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 92.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 85.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 91.5%
91.5%
8.5%
Nelson
Gambrell
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Nelson
Gambrell
Last 7: Nelson 7-0 Gambrell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
0
Nelson
Gambrell
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gambrell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gambrell
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
46.2% (303)
+4.5%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
31.3% (16)
+28.5%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
49.0% (51)
-0.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gambrell shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Gambrell is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gambrell
Home
53.6% (603)
42.6% (188)
Away
49.9% (585)
49.5% (182)
By Period
Nelson
Gambrell
P1
55.4%
46.1%
P2
47.2%
53.5%
P3
52.6%
37.5%
OT
51.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Gambrell
50.0%▲
48.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 12:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 14:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 05:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |