Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gambrell wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gambrell 46.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gambrell 71.5%
Defensive zone
Gambrell 67.7%
Neutral zone
Gambrell 74.3%
Result
Dylan Gambrell favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Gambrell
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Gambrell
Sturm
Last 6: Gambrell 1-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gambrell
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Gambrell
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Gambrell
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gambrell
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,627)
57.1% (2,719)
-9.7%
Power Play
36.4% (33)
61.3% (62)
-24.9%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (314)
51.0% (498)
-10.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Gambrell is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,434).
Gambrell shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Gambrell
Sturm
Home
44.3% (994)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
48.1% (980)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Gambrell
Sturm
P1
44.3%
56.5%
P2
49.8%
54.9%
P3
44.5%
57.4%
OT
12.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
44.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gambrell
50.0%▲
48.0%
46.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Gambrell |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 12:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |