Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gambrell wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gambrell 44.6% vs Sturm 50.9% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gambrell 74.5%
Defensive zone
Gambrell 74.2%
Neutral zone
Gambrell 73.8%
Result
Dylan Gambrell favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Gambrell
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Gambrell
Sturm
Last 6: Gambrell 1-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gambrell
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Gambrell
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Gambrell
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gambrell
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (500)
50.8% (126)
-6.2%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
50.0% (2)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
41.1% (129)
66.7% (6)
-25.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Gambrell is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Gambrell shoots right. Sturm is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
Gambrell
Sturm
Home
41.6% (363)
54.1% (74)
Away
46.7% (274)
48.3% (60)
By Period
Gambrell
Sturm
P1
42.2%
48.1%
P2
46.2%
62.0%
P3
43.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gambrell
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Gambrell |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 12:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |