Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Larkin 46.2% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Stepan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Larkin
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
45.5% (391)
+2.7%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
41.4% (29)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
50.0% (12)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Stepan shoots right. Larkin is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larkin
Home
46.4% (774)
47.0% (181)
Away
47.7% (748)
44.2% (251)
By Period
Stepan
Larkin
P1
46.7%
42.7%
P2
46.3%
52.4%
P3
48.1%
41.8%
OT
47.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2017 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 12, 2017 | 1 | 19:33 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 1 | 18:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |