Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs Larkin 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 64.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Stepan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stepan
Larkin
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
6
1
Stepan
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Stepan
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
48.5% (1,057)
-1.5%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
61.4% (140)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (108)
48.7% (117)
-1.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stepan is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,079).
Stepan shoots right. Larkin is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larkin
Home
48.2% (761)
51.4% (652)
Away
47.3% (789)
48.5% (662)
By Period
Stepan
Larkin
P1
46.3%
49.1%
P2
50.4%
52.0%
P3
46.3%
48.0%
OT
55.2%
52.6%
Final 5 min
47.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2017 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2017 | 1 | 18:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 11:11 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |