Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 13 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Skinner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Skinner 44.7% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Skinner leads 14-2 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Skinner 96.6%
Defensive zone
Skinner 73.8%
Neutral zone
Skinner 86.2%
Result
Jeff Skinner favored at 93.1%
6.9%
93.1%
Larkin
Skinner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
14
(16 meetings)
2
14
Larkin
Skinner
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 Skinner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
0
13
Larkin
Skinner
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Skinner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Skinner
0
1
Larkin
Skinner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Skinner
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
42.3% (1,317)
+9.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
52.0% (404)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
33.3% (15)
+16.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Skinner shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Skinner is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,097).
Home / Away
Larkin
Skinner
Home
54.0% (6,238)
48.2% (949)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
39.9% (791)
By Period
Larkin
Skinner
P1
52.7%
41.6%
P2
53.1%
46.0%
P3
52.1%
46.4%
OT
58.4%
23.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | OT | 02:29 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Apr 6, 2023 | OT | 02:26 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 01:37 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 02:38 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 15:14 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 2, 2018 | 2 | 09:38 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |