Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Skinner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Skinner 48.0% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Skinner leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Skinner 96.4%
Defensive zone
Skinner 60.3%
Neutral zone
Skinner 80.1%
Result
Jeff Skinner favored at 92.8%
7.2%
92.8%
Larkin
Skinner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Larkin
Skinner
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 Skinner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
0
9
Larkin
Skinner
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Skinner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Skinner
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
46.8% (222)
+6.8%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
48.7% (78)
+10.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Skinner shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Skinner is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Larkin
Skinner
Home
56.6% (700)
53.8% (169)
Away
52.1% (655)
38.9% (131)
By Period
Larkin
Skinner
P1
55.4%
48.1%
P2
54.7%
47.1%
P3
52.7%
46.9%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | OT | 02:29 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Apr 6, 2023 | OT | 02:26 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 01:37 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 02:38 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |