Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Dowling 48.7% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 78.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 79.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
Larkin
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
1
Larkin
Dowling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Dowling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Dowling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
48.7% (318)
+3.9%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
20.0% (5)
+40.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
50.0% (4)
+5.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dowling
Home
54.7% (783)
49.0% (145)
Away
54.3% (816)
47.8% (182)
By Period
Larkin
Dowling
P1
55.9%
48.1%
P2
56.1%
49.1%
P3
51.1%
47.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |