Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kakko shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Kakko 50.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 58.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 93.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 78.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Larkin
Kakko
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Kakko
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Kakko
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kakko
0
1
Larkin
Kakko
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kakko
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Kakko
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kakko
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
42.3% (78)
+10.3%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
77.3% (22)
-16.6%
On power play, Kakko has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kakko shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Kakko is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (73).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kakko
Home
54.7% (783)
52.8% (36)
Away
54.3% (816)
48.4% (64)
By Period
Larkin
Kakko
P1
55.9%
45.7%
P2
56.1%
53.8%
P3
51.1%
50.0%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Kakko
50.0%▲
47.4%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Kaapo Kakko |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |