Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kakko shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kakko 48.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 65.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 94.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 82.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Larkin
Kakko
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Kakko
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Kakko
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kakko
0
1
Larkin
Kakko
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kakko
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Kakko
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kakko
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
45.5% (143)
+6.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
60.0% (30)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
0.0% (2)
+50.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +50.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kakko shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Kakko is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kakko
Home
54.0% (6,238)
53.5% (71)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
43.3% (104)
By Period
Larkin
Kakko
P1
52.7%
46.0%
P2
53.1%
51.0%
P3
52.1%
45.0%
OT
58.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kakko
50.0%▲
47.4%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Kaapo Kakko |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |