Dylan Larkin vs Macklin Celebrini
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Celebrini 48.9% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 72.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Larkin
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Larkin
Celebrini
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Celebrini
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
Celebrini
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Celebrini
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
48.2% (924)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
52.8% (108)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
56.0% (25)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Celebrini is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Larkin
Celebrini
Home
52.4% (647)
47.8% (523)
Away
52.7% (643)
49.8% (534)
By Period
Larkin
Celebrini
P1
52.2%
47.8%
P2
53.1%
47.4%
P3
51.7%
51.1%
OT
61.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 07:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 16:30 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:21 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |