Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bourque 46.4% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 70.3%
Neutral zone
Bourque 51.3%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Larkin
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Larkin
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
46.7% (508)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
27.3% (22)
+31.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.9% (28)
+7.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +31.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bourque
Home
54.0% (6,238)
47.3% (262)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
44.3% (296)
By Period
Larkin
Bourque
P1
52.7%
42.4%
P2
53.1%
42.9%
P3
52.1%
50.7%
OT
58.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |