Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Bourque 47.1% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 60.3%
Defensive zone
Bourque 69.2%
Neutral zone
Bourque 55.2%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Larkin
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Larkin
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
46.7% (321)
+5.9%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
33.3% (6)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
42.9% (21)
+13.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bourque
Home
54.7% (783)
51.0% (157)
Away
54.3% (816)
42.4% (191)
By Period
Larkin
Bourque
P1
55.9%
44.2%
P2
56.1%
44.7%
P3
51.1%
49.6%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
59.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |