Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Acciari 51.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.4%
Defensive zone
Acciari 63.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Larkin
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Larkin
Acciari
Last 9: Larkin 6-3 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
0
Larkin
Acciari
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
3
Larkin
Acciari
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
53.0% (285)
-1.3%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
31.3% (16)
+27.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.8% (183)
-2.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Acciari is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (377).
Home / Away
Larkin
Acciari
Home
52.4% (647)
53.2% (267)
Away
52.7% (643)
49.3% (217)
By Period
Larkin
Acciari
P1
52.2%
53.1%
P2
53.1%
51.1%
P3
51.7%
50.6%
OT
61.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |