Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 42 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Acciari 51.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 50-46 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.0%
Defensive zone
Acciari 77.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Larkin
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
46
(96 meetings)
50
46
Larkin
Acciari
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
39
3
Larkin
Acciari
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
5
36
Larkin
Acciari
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
6
7
Larkin
Acciari
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.8% (3,276)
-1.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
48.2% (85)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
47.1% (1,061)
+3.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Acciari is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,236).
Home / Away
Larkin
Acciari
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.0% (2,115)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
50.7% (2,307)
By Period
Larkin
Acciari
P1
52.7%
52.2%
P2
53.1%
51.5%
P3
52.1%
50.5%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |