Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 53.7%). Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Acciari 53.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.2%
Defensive zone
Acciari 83.7%
Neutral zone
Acciari 61.1%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Larkin
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Larkin
Acciari
Last 9: Larkin 4-5 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Acciari
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
5
Larkin
Acciari
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
56.7% (393)
-4.1%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
33.3% (3)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
48.0% (202)
+7.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Acciari is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Larkin
Acciari
Home
54.7% (783)
54.5% (279)
Away
54.3% (816)
53.0% (319)
By Period
Larkin
Acciari
P1
55.9%
56.9%
P2
56.1%
51.4%
P3
51.1%
53.2%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |