Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Stamkos 54.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 79.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Larkin
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Larkin
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Larkin
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
55.8% (339)
-4.1%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
53.3% (90)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
62.5% (8)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (647)
53.4% (208)
Away
52.7% (643)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
52.2%
55.3%
P2
53.1%
52.5%
P3
51.7%
58.9%
OT
61.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |