Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 56.0%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
5
Larkin
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
55.9% (499)
+0.0%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
56.3% (126)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
58.3% (12)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
56.0% (654)
55.3% (349)
Away
54.8% (639)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
54.4%
57.0%
P2
55.9%
59.2%
P3
55.2%
51.5%
OT
64.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |