Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.8%). Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 58.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 58.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Larkin
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Larkin
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Larkin
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
55.3% (628)
-1.7%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
55.1% (216)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
40.2% (87)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
56.6% (700)
55.5% (499)
Away
52.1% (655)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
55.4%
50.7%
P2
54.7%
53.8%
P3
52.7%
55.9%
OT
59.1%
87.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:32 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 03:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 02:53 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 03:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |