Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 46.2% vs Stamkos 52.3% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 7: Larkin 3-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
3
Larkin
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Larkin
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (391)
54.7% (179)
-9.2%
Power Play
41.4% (29)
50.0% (4)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
40.0% (15)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (128).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
47.0% (181)
57.4% (108)
Away
44.2% (251)
48.9% (90)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
42.7%
53.4%
P2
52.4%
51.7%
P3
41.8%
55.6%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 13:37 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 14:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |