Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.5% vs Stamkos 55.8% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 15-5 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 78.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 78.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
15
(20 meetings)
5
15
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
6
Larkin
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
7
Larkin
Stamkos
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (562)
56.5% (246)
-7.0%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
61.4% (101)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
53.6% (69)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
48.5% (388)
54.7% (170)
Away
50.6% (342)
58.9% (246)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
52.1%
60.9%
P2
46.9%
59.2%
P3
49.2%
50.4%
OT
55.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
67.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 18:49 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 01:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 16:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 00:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 17:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 17:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 12:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |