Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Kozak 49.7% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Kozak leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.8%
Defensive zone
Kozak 73.7%
Neutral zone
Kozak 57.2%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Larkin
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Larkin
Kozak
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Kozak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
2
Larkin
Kozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
3
Larkin
Kozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
49.3% (294)
+2.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
60.0% (5)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.0% (40)
-1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kozak
Home
52.4% (647)
45.5% (145)
Away
52.7% (643)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Larkin
Kozak
P1
52.2%
53.4%
P2
53.1%
50.0%
P3
51.7%
44.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:18 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:53 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |