Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Kozak 47.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Larkin
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Larkin
Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
46.0% (137)
+6.6%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
66.7% (3)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
40.0% (5)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Kozak is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kozak
Home
54.7% (783)
51.2% (84)
Away
54.3% (816)
39.3% (61)
By Period
Larkin
Kozak
P1
55.9%
57.1%
P2
56.1%
34.7%
P3
51.1%
48.1%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |