Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kozak 48.8% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Kozak leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.1%
Defensive zone
Kozak 74.1%
Neutral zone
Kozak 54.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Larkin
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Larkin
Kozak
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Kozak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
2
Larkin
Kozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
3
Larkin
Kozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.3% (431)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
62.5% (8)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
48.9% (45)
+1.3%
On power play, Kozak has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kozak
Home
54.0% (6,238)
47.6% (229)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Larkin
Kozak
P1
52.7%
54.4%
P2
53.1%
45.7%
P3
52.1%
45.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:18 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:53 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |