Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Strome wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.0% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 71.5%
Defensive zone
Strome 50.2%
Neutral zone
Strome 62.4%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Strome
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Strome
MacKinnon
Last 10: Strome 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
2
1
Strome
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Strome
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
3
1
Strome
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (856)
50.0% (992)
+6.2%
Power Play
66.4% (298)
64.9% (148)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
34.4% (32)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Strome is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (358).
Strome shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Strome
MacKinnon
Home
55.7% (627)
53.3% (591)
Away
62.2% (539)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Strome
MacKinnon
P1
61.6%
49.9%
P2
54.5%
53.2%
P3
60.4%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
58.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:32 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |