Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Strome wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 48.9% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 64.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 76.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Strome
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Strome
MacKinnon
Last 9: Strome 4-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Strome
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Strome
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
3
1
Strome
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (894)
44.7% (1,053)
+3.6%
Power Play
50.5% (182)
36.8% (95)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (6)
65.0% (20)
+1.7%
On power play, Strome has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Strome is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Strome shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Strome
MacKinnon
Home
46.4% (513)
49.4% (553)
Away
51.0% (569)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Strome
MacKinnon
P1
44.9%
45.3%
P2
50.8%
42.7%
P3
49.7%
45.1%
OT
77.8%
46.2%
Final 5 min
49.6%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
48.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:13 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |