Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bourque on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs Bourque 46.7% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 70.0%
Defensive zone
Bourque 71.4%
Neutral zone
Bourque 73.8%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Lindholm
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lindholm
Bourque
Last 5: Lindholm 1-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
3
Lindholm
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
47.0% (181)
+7.4%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
25.0% (16)
+37.2%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
42.9% (7)
+6.5%
On power play, Lindholm has a +37.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Lindholm is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Lindholm shoots right. Bourque is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Bourque
Home
55.8% (541)
41.9% (105)
Away
54.7% (428)
48.5% (99)
By Period
Lindholm
Bourque
P1
54.8%
39.7%
P2
55.7%
39.3%
P3
55.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:15 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |